Develop and refine outcome indicators to measure progress on climate resilience at national, regional and local levels, including knowledge and feedback developed from the Mission

Expected Outcome:

In support of the European Green Deal, the Adaptation Strategy and the Mission on Adaptation to climate change, successful proposals will contribute to the monitoring of the adaptation progress across Europe.

Projects results are expected to contribute to all of the following expected outcomes:

• Better capture the state and progress of climate adaptation efforts implemented at local, regional and national levels across European Union and Associated Countries.
• Better measure the effectiveness of adaptation measures and solutions - analysing social, ecological, and economic benefits and trade-offs, including on just climate resilience.
• Accelerate the implementation of adaptation efforts across the European Union and Associated Countries, 1) by making the benefits of adaptation actions more visible; and 2) by demonstrating how appropriate governance -- supported by adequate organisational structures -- policy actions and financial planning improve climate resilience.

Scope:

The sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change made clear that, despite recent progress, adaptation in Europe is not implemented at the depth, scope and speed needed[1]. As impacts from climate change are increasingly felt, the need for systematic and consistent monitoring of adaptation efforts is becoming more urgent. At the same time, indicators on adaptation outcomes (as opposed to process-related indicators) and adaptive capacity are lacking.

This topic aims at strengthening the EU’s capacity, knowledge, and involvement of relevant stakeholders in the monitoring and evaluation of current adaptation policies. It aims to facilitate policy, financial, corporate, and individual planning and decisions affecting resilience to climate impacts. Lessons learnt from currently available indicators, the literature, efforts underway surveying the use and prospects for indicators within the framework[2] of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and feedback from the experience in the first years of the EU Mission on Adaptation to Climate Change work provide the basis for further developments.

Proposals should address all of the following aspects:

• Develop an integrated framework for monitoring, evaluating, and learning from implemented adaptation measures, as a set. This framework should be based on outcome indicators, i.e., effectively measure levels of climate resilience rather than measuring activities and outputs, as it is often the case. It should consider maladaptation[3] and be useable in all parts of Europe, by relying on common features for the whole of Europe while allowing for regional specificities. It should integrate different kinds of qualitative and quantitative data, methods, and indicators that could rely on satellite imagery, models, or local knowledge. The use of Artificial intelligence systems (e.g., machine learning) is encouraged, if appropriate. Methodology and error assessment should be documented/referenced adequately.
• Develop or refine earth observation indicators for adaptation, together with a set of visualisation tools. Those indicators should consider governance, social, economic, and environmental aspects, including adaptation of human behaviours to climate change.
• Complement the data collection with citizen science[4] to help engage and involve all actors and socialize results. To achieve this, proposals should also find ways to engage citizens through citizen science initiatives, in particular vulnerable groups.
• Develop a strategy to visualize and communicate the benefits of adaptation efforts to the relevant stakeholders.
• Provide training and dissemination material for different target groups, including regions and local authorities.

The project will contribute to the monitoring of the Mission and should therefore feed their results to and collaborate closely with the Mission Implementation Platform[5]. It should build on the work of past and ongoing projects and initiatives, such as the indicator set developed by the REGILIENCE[6] or RESCCUE[7] projects.

Additionally operational links and collaboration should be established with the Climate-ADAPT platform[8]; ESPON CLIMATE[9], and the relevant mission projects, in particular CLIMAAX[10] and Pathway2resilience[11]. Linking the project to the second European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA), if confirmed, or any relevant project from Horizon Europe is encouraged. Applicants should acknowledge these requests and already account for these obligations in their proposal, making adequate provisions in terms of resources and budget to engage and collaborate with the Mission governance.

[1] https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-13/

[2] E.g. AC_TP_GlobalGoalOnAdaptation.pdf (unfccc.int); OECD (2021) Monitoring, Learning and Evaluation for Climate Risk Management 58665de0-en.pdf (oecd-ilibrary.org);

[3] Maladaptation is when people, assets or systems become more vulnerable or exposed to climate-related hazards and extreme events after implementing adaptation measures.

[4] Citizen science is any activity that involves the public in scientific research and thus has the potential to bring together science, policy makers, and society as a whole in an impactful way.

[5] Currently managed by MIP4Adapt under the contract CINEA/2022/OP/0013/SI2.884597 funded by the European Union. About MIP4Adapt (europa.eu)

[6] https://regilience.eu/reports-and-findings/ (see for instance “Concept note for the indicator set (D3.2, 2022)”, “Indicator set (D3.3)” or “Finalised indicator set and monitoring road maps (D3.5)”

[7] https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/700174

[8] The European Climate Adaptation Platform Climate-ADAPT is a partnership between the DG Climate Action and the European Environment Agency. https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/

[9] https://www.espon.eu/climate

[10] https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/101093864

[11] https://www.pathways2resilience.eu/

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